Overview
The base rate fallacy is a common cognitive error that occurs when individuals disregard the general prevalence of an event in favor of specific information. This fallacy can lead to significant misjudgments in various fields, including medicine, finance, and everyday decision-making. Understanding ...
Key Terms
Example: If 1 in 100 people have a disease, the base rate is 1%.
Example: The probability of flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%.
Example: Confirmation bias leads people to favor information that confirms their existing beliefs.
Example: Choosing a college based on rankings rather than personal fit.
Example: A p-value of less than 0.05 indicates statistical significance.
Example: Using averages without considering the range can mislead.