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HomeHomework HelppsychologyBase Rate Fallacy

Base Rate Fallacy

The base rate fallacy refers to the tendency for individuals to ignore base rate information (statistical data) and instead rely on specific information or anecdotal evidence when making judgments about probabilities.

intermediate
2 hours
Psychology
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Overview

The base rate fallacy is a common cognitive error that occurs when individuals disregard the general prevalence of an event in favor of specific information. This fallacy can lead to significant misjudgments in various fields, including medicine, finance, and everyday decision-making. Understanding ...

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Key Terms

Base Rate
The general prevalence of an event in a population.

Example: If 1 in 100 people have a disease, the base rate is 1%.

Probability
The likelihood of an event occurring.

Example: The probability of flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%.

Cognitive Bias
A systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment.

Example: Confirmation bias leads people to favor information that confirms their existing beliefs.

Decision Making
The process of making choices by identifying options and assessing outcomes.

Example: Choosing a college based on rankings rather than personal fit.

Statistical Significance
A measure of whether an observed effect is likely due to chance.

Example: A p-value of less than 0.05 indicates statistical significance.

Misleading Statistics
Statistics that are presented in a way that can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Example: Using averages without considering the range can mislead.

Related Topics

Cognitive Biases
Explore various cognitive biases that affect human judgment and decision-making.
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Statistical Reasoning
Learn about statistical methods and how to interpret data effectively.
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Decision Theory
Study the principles of making rational choices under uncertainty.
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Key Concepts

Base RateProbabilityDecision MakingCognitive Bias