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HomeHomework HelpstatisticsBayesian Inference

Bayesian Inference

The process of updating the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available, using Bayes' theorem to calculate the posterior probability of an event occurring given new data, and applying it to real-world scenarios such as medical testing and disease diagnosis

intermediate
5 hours
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Overview

Bayesian inference is a powerful statistical method that allows for the updating of probabilities as new evidence is introduced. It is grounded in Bayes' Theorem, which mathematically describes how to combine prior knowledge with new data to refine predictions. This approach is widely applicable acr...

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Key Terms

Prior Probability
The initial probability assigned to a hypothesis before new evidence is considered.

Example: If you believe there is a 70% chance of rain based on past data, that's your prior probability.

Posterior Probability
The updated probability of a hypothesis after considering new evidence.

Example: After seeing dark clouds, you might update the probability of rain to 90%.

Likelihood
The probability of observing the evidence given a specific hypothesis.

Example: The likelihood of seeing dark clouds if it is going to rain.

Bayes' Theorem
A mathematical formula used to update probabilities based on new evidence.

Example: P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H)) / P(E)

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
A class of algorithms for sampling from probability distributions based on constructing a Markov chain.

Example: Used in Bayesian statistics to estimate posterior distributions.

Evidence
Data or information that influences the probability of a hypothesis.

Example: Weather forecasts serve as evidence for predicting rain.

Related Topics

Frequentist Statistics
An approach to statistics that relies on the frequency of events to make inferences.
intermediate
Machine Learning
A field of study that uses algorithms to learn from data and make predictions.
advanced
Statistical Inference
The process of drawing conclusions about a population based on sample data.
intermediate

Key Concepts

Prior ProbabilityLikelihoodPosterior ProbabilityBayes' Theorem